25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.08 - 04.09.2022 Forecast on 05 - 11.09.2022 Carrington Rotations 2261 (17,9.08.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -3.0) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 038+12/ -13 (Wn=063+24/-21). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 5 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 6 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "M" (ONE - LARGE), 64 - CLASS "C", ONE SOLAR FI- LAMENT EJECTION AND 29 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (1 WAS type III, WIDTH - 180 - 270 deg) AND ONE TYPE II (90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 29.08 0324 0347 0338 S26W86L301 M3.3/SF 13088 29.08 1048 1112 1107 S26W86L301 M8.6 3.0E-02 13088 29.08 1446 1508 1456 S26W86L301 M2.5 13088 29.08 1611 1800 1705 S28W85L301 M2.5 13088 29.08 1841 1920 1857 S26W86L301 M4.7 13088 30.08 0125 0158 0140 S24W86L301 M1.7 13088 30.08 0158 0224 0213 S26W86L301 M1.5 2.3E-02 13088 30.08 1804 2123 1929 S25W86L301 M2.1 1.9E-01 13088 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 02.09 1845 S22E30L >10 02.09 1845 S22E30L >10 óíå/1924/II 27.08 1758 1828 S11E23L 13 13087 The informanion about last ejection comes latter. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N22L195 N10L223 S03L208 N10L190 4.3% 4.09 - SDO,HINODA * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 02.09/0615 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.09. ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 óåîôñâòø Wus 087 050 042 067 071 068 062 F10.7 131 126 113 116 130 123 128 èbcg ó2.1 ÷7.6 ó1.0 ÷6.4 B7.2 B6.5 c1.3 GOES Sp 280 380 400 840 650 770 740 msh N 1 1 2 IMF - - - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+6 1.5E+6 2.5E+6 2.0E+6 3.1E+6 7.1E+6 6.9E+7 GOES Ie>2 167 334 172 170 168 309 6689 pfu Ap 14 13 13 9 8 25 64 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 11 14 11 11 21 35 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr(>10 MeV) To-27.08/0530UT; max: /1220UT - 27pfu; Te:30.09/12 UT; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 4.09/1405 UT AND OBSERVED 4.09. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 5-12.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION UNTIL THE END OF DAY 2.09 WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE, WHEN A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ACCORDING TO THE DATA AT THE BOULDER CENTER (G1, Ams= 29, dur.=18 h), AND AFTER 6 h AT THE END OF THE DAY IN NEAR-EARTH SPACE OCCURED THE NEXT LONG-TERM MAGNETIC STORM (G2) WHICH CONTINUES AT THE TIME OF THE PUBLICATION OF THE REVIEW. ON IZMIRAN DATA THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=22, dur.=18 h), SECOND-(G2) IS CONTINUES. THESE MAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS WERE CAUSED BY THE JOINT INFLU- ENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A LARGE EQATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 2.09, ACCOM- PANIED BY A TYPE II CORONAL MASS EJECTION. NEXT WEEK AFTER 6.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov