25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2022 HAS MADE Wjuly = 45.2 75.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 26 MONTH (2022, FEBRUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb.= 38.9 64.8 - in new system W*jan.= 36 60.1 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR AUGUST 2022 (68 observatories): 1.. 26m 6.. 72 11.. 72 16..123M 21.. 58 26.. 95 31.. 44 2.. 34 7.. 86 12..103 17..108 22.. 75 27.. 94 3.. 37 8.. 80 13..111 18.. 89 23.. 51 28.. 85 4.. 42 9.. 62 14..111 19.. 85 24.. 60 29.. 71 5.. 71 10.. 65 15..111 20.. 74 25.. 93 30.. 49 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON AUGUST 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, FEBRUARY F10.7aug. = 114.2 F*10.7feb.= 108.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON AUGUST 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, FEBRUARY Ap aug. = 11 Ap*feb. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.09.2022 Forecast on 12 - 19.09.2022 Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.9 - -2.3) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=051+22/- 17 (Wn= 84+38/-28). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 9 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND 5 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=090+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "M", 73 - CLASS "C", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 21 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 05.09 1758 1805 1814 S22W72L196 í1.0 7.3E-03 13089 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 05.09 >9 óíå/0125 10.09 1929 centhal zone 14 The informanion about last ejection comes latter. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 02.09/0615 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.09. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER Wus 079 056 073 075 072 122 113 F10.7 126 126 127 126 136 128 152 èbcg ó1.1 ÷8.1 ÷7.1 ÷9.4 B5.1 B5.4 ó1.1 GOES Sp 780 270 240 240 180 340 410 msh N 1 1 1 1 3 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.1å+6 2.6E+6 5.7E+8 8.8E+8 3.9E+8 3.7E+8 3.3E+8 GOES Ie>2 9252 7271 15368 22580 11844 15502 21637 pfu Ap 32 20 14 19 13 12 9 nô Dst -59 -46 -51 -36 -44 -52 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 27 19 11 16 10 12 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; max: 10/2230UT - 1.4pfu; Te: continues; b/s sourse. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 4.09/1405 UT AND OBSERVED 4-11.09. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 12-19.09. A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=45, duration= 41 h) IS REGISTERED ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA 2 MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS (G1, Ams= 31, duration=39 h) AND AFTER 6 HOURS (G1, Ams= 31, duration= 18 h) OBSERVED 3 - 6.09. THESE MAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS WERE CAUSED BY THE JOINT INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED STRE- AM FROM A LARGE EQATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBAN- CE FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 2.09, ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II CO- RONAL MASS EJECTION. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSET- TLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov