25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2022 HAS MADE Wjuly = 45.2 75.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 27 MONTH (2022, MARCH) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*mar.= 41.3 68.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*feb.= 38.9 64.8 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR SEPTEMBER 2022 (69 observatories): 1.. 62m 6.. 75 11..129 16.. 92 21.. 83 26..134 2.. 64 7.. 97 12..141 17.. 85 22..106 27..109 3.. 69 8.. 97 13..117 18.. 73 23..131 28.. 86 4.. 72 9..102 14.. 91 19.. 71 24..150M 29.. 72 5.. 84 10..117 15..102 20.. 69 25..134 30.. 76 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON SEPTEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, FEBRUARY F10.7sep. = 135.1 F*10.7mar.= XXX THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON SEPTEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MARCH Ap sep. = 12.2 Ap*mar. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.09 - 01.10.2022 Forecast on 02 - 10.10.2022 Carrington Rotations 2262 (14,7.09.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.8 - -0.4) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=046+26/-12 (Wn =076+44/-20). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 6 SUNSPOT GRO- UPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 5 X-RAY FLA- RES WERE CLASS "M" (2 WERE LARGE), 91-CLASS "C", 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 33 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM WHICH 2 WERE TYPE II(an- gular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 30.09 0346 0401 0651 N25E87L062 M1.0 7.0E-03 13112 30.09 1611 1622 1633 N25E87L062 M2.9 2.2E-02 13112 30.09 1730 1734 1745 N25E87L062 M1.3 8.9E-03 13112 01.10 1958 2010 2016 N17W35L158 M5.8/1B 3.0E-02 13110 CME 02.10 0208 0226 0221 N17W39l152 M8.7/1N 3.6E-02 13110 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 27.09^ 2230 ? ? CME/27/0048 28.09^ 0230 ~N15E15L180 >5 13110 CME/0446 29.09 >0007 >1337 N56E07L 10 29.09 0348 0508 N63E06L 15 01.10 <1142 <1246 N12W16L152 19 C3.8 13113 CME ^A filament eruption was observed in the proximity of the trailer spots of Region 3110 in GONG H-Alpha imagery near 28/0230 UTC. There was also an eruption (~27/2230 UTC) and subsequent dimming (~28/0400 UTC) visible in SUVI 195 imagery ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLASH ACTIVITY WILL BE AT MEDIUM, LOW, AND PROBABLY AT HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S20L206 S50L261 S85L216 S25L203 7.5% 26.09 3 MMâ SDO HINODE óî + N40L247 N30L242 N12L232 N25L217 3.6% 31.09 3 ííâ SDO HINODE óH + N18L176 N05L193 S08L117 S05L166 6.2% 01.10 1 VV, SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 29.09/1210 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. SINCE 09/26/0850 UT THE EARTH WAS (unexpectedly) IN THE "-" SECTOR. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.10. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 01 OCTOBER Wus 120 110 072 056 174 100 F10.7 133 135 135 137 137 148 èbcg ÷8.4 ÷8.2 ÷8.4 ó1.0 C1.6 ó1.5 GOES Sp 720 650 650 980 490 970 msh N 1 2 1 IMF +/- - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 7.6å+7 1.2E+6 1.2E+6 1.1E+6 1.3E+6 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 2641 1256 120 133 129 157 pfu Ap 6 16 5 7 13 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 14 6 6 8 2 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; max: 12/1345UT - 6.75pfu; Te: 23/03 UT. WHEN THE PROTON FLUX FALLED BELOW 1 pfu BUT CONTINUES... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov