25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2022 HAS MADE Wsep = 45.2 75.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 27 MONTH (2022, MARCH) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*mar.= 41.3 68.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*feb.= 38.9 64.8 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR SEPTEMBER 2022 (69 observatories): 1.. 62m 6.. 75 11..129 16.. 92 21.. 83 26..134 2.. 64 7.. 97 12..141 17.. 85 22..106 27..109 3.. 69 8.. 97 13..117 18.. 73 23..131 28.. 86 4.. 72 9..102 14.. 91 19.. 71 24..150M 29.. 72 5.. 84 10..117 15..102 20.. 69 25..134 30.. 76 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON SEPTEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, FEBRUARY F10.7sep. = 134.7 F*10.7mar.= 112.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON SEPTEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MARCH Ap sep. = 12.2 Ap*mar. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 09.10.2022 Forecast on 10 - 17.10.2022 Carrington Rotations 2262, 2263 (14,7.09; 11,4.10.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.3 - +0.3) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=081+11/-21 (Wn = 136+17/-36). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF THEM WAS BIG AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 X-RAY FLA- RES WAS CLASS X, 11-CLASS "M" (1-LARGE), 101-CLASS "C", 5 SOLAR FI- LAMENT EJECTION AND 32 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM WHICH 3 WERE TYPE II(angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 02.10 0208 0221 0226 N17W39l152 M8.7/1N 3.6E-02 13110 02.10 1352 1405 1423 N25E73L062 M1.2/Sf 1.7E-02 13112 02.10 1534 1545 1553 N22E69L062 M1.0/Sf 8.1E-03 13112 02.10 1953 2025 2034 L152 X1.0 8.6E-02 13110 II/2|1157km/s 03.10 0219 0233 0302 N23E64L062 M2.6/Sf 4.0E-02 13112 03.10 0938 1011 1027 L062 M4.2 7.2E-02 13110 03.10 1103 1111 1119 L062 M1.5 1.1E-02 13110 03.10 1520 1530 1540 N24E54L062 M1.6/1N 1.3E-02 13112 03.10 1957 2028 2052 L152 M1.2 13110 03.10 2111 2122 2131 L152 M1.7 13110 04.10 1248 1351 1315 N17W75L152 M1.6 3.9E-02 13110 07.10 1421 1532 1444 N28E09L044 M1.0 3.6E-02 13116 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 02.10 2330 S33E40L086 24 CME/0036 04.10 1327 S27E09L109 12 CME 04.10 S30W35L065 >10 CME 07.10 >0010 >1800 N31W33L061 73 09.10 <0248 S24E45L070 >10 CME/0248 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT MEDIUM, LOW, AND PROBABLY AT HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 29.09/1210 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.10. ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 OCTOBER Wus 102 144 153 151 139 146 137 114 F10.7 154 155 152 161 156 100 157 161 èbcg ó1.4 ó1.7 ó1.1 ó1.0 ÷8.4 ÷8.6 ÷7.8 B9.9 GOES Sp 1130 1150 1220 1210 1140 850 790 740 msh N 3 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.3å+6 6.2E+6 8.9E+6 5.0E+7 6.2E+7 1.1E+8 1.3å+8 1.1E+8 GOES Ie>2 145 282 414 952 2404 2903 3556 3329 pfu Ap 12 24 16 14 18 15 12 27 nô Dst -25 -37 -45 -30 -51 -28 -30 -36 nô KIOTO Amsc 15 24 19 13 16 14 23 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSER- VED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, ámsc=33, dur.=12 h) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA OF IZMIRAN AND (G0, ámsc=27, dur.= 24 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA REGISTERED 09.10. A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC DIS- TURBANCE COULD BE THE FLARE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATION 2-4.10 AND, IN PARTI- CULAR, THE EJECTION OF A GIANT FIBER 7.10, ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II CME. CORONAL HOLES WERE NOT GEOEFFICIENT. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. MINOR SUBSTORMS DURATION 3-9 HOURS INTENSITY G0- G2 MARKED 3- 7.10. THE BIGGEST OF THEM HAPPENED AT THE END OF DAY 3.10 (G2, 9h). NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov