25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.10.2022 Forecast on 17 - 24.10.2022 Carrington Rotations 2262, 2263 (14,7.09; 11,4.10.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (0.4 - 1.0) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FRJM MIDDLE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=042+38/- 12 (Wn=069+65/-19). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 5 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, 1 OF THEM WAS MIDDLE AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+40/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. SIX X-RAY FLARES CLASS M, 49-CLASS C, 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 25 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.10 0035 0047 0055 N24W26L062 1F/M1.0 1.1E-02 13112 10.10 1605 1628 1647 N24W34L062 M2.4/SF 3.9E-02 13112 11.10 0836 0842 0846 N22W42L062 M3.9/SB 8.9E-03 13112 II/2 CME 11.10 1047 1052 1057 N23W45L062 M1.5 4.6E-03 13112 II/1 CME 13.10 2354 0019 0037 N24W65L062 M1.5/SF 13112 14.10 0920 0944 0951 N24W90L062 M1.3 13112 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 13.10 0700 S28E10L343 >43 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT MEDIUM, LOW, AND PROBABLY AT HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWINGGEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 11.10/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 19.10. ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ïëôñâòø Wus 134 072 062 057 051 050 059 F10.7 163 150 141 130 121 115 119 èbcg B7.1 B7.2 B6.1 B5.8 ÷5.3 ÷4.0 ÷5.3 GOES Sp 860 600 580 480 260 080 110 msh N 1 2 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+8 2.1E+8 2.6E+8 1.7E+8 3.8E+6 1.7E+6 1.6å+7 GOES Ie>2 3586 4649 6216 4331 2335 140 808 Pfu Ap 10 24 16 14 18 15 16 nô Dst -18 -73 -17 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 24 19 13 16 14 14 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 5.10/1545 UT AND OBSERVED 5-14.10. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE. MINOR SUBSTORMS DURATION 3-9 h INTENSITY G0-G1 MARKED 14-16.10. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov