25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 23.10.2022 Forecast on 24 - 30.10.2022 Carrington Rotations 2263 (11,4.10.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (1.1 - 1.5) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL. ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 033+17/-13 (Wn = 058+26/-25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 5 SMALL SUN- SPOT GROUPS, 4 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=50+40/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 51 X-RAY FLARES CLASS C, 44- CLASS B AND A, 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 26 CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 19.10 1410 S20W08L240 ~10 22.10 <2224 S28W32L286 ~10 CME/2224 23.10 1421 S45E60L260 <10 23.10 1604 S30W90L190 ~5 CME/1612 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - S18L268 S35L319 S60L292 S45L245 6.8% 23.10 R4 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 11.10/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. ON PERIOD 21/1645-22/17 OBSERVED "-" POLARITY. NEXT SEC- TOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 27.10. ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 OCTOBER Wus 084 050 050 033 060 055 065 F10.7 126 114 113 116 109 105 108 èbcg B6.5 B5.5 B4.6 B6.0 ÷5.6 ÷3.6 ÷2.4 GOES Sp 190 240 230 100 110 110 090 msh N 1 1 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 3.1å+7 3.3E+7 3.4E+7 3.5E+7 3.3E+7 1.97E+6 1.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 889 707 913 1290 1164 572 175 Pfu Ap 6 6 5 7 5 27 16 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 4 8 5 24 17 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 20.10/1350 UT AND OBSERVED 20-21.10. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 21.10 THE EARTH PASSED A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM A POTENTIALLY GEOEFFICIENT CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN A BOULDER ON THE EARTH A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms= 43, dur= 43 h) WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS AN INTENSE (G2) 9-hour SUBSTORM. 22.10 BOTH CENTERS MARKED A 9 h SUBSTORM OF G0 INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 30.10. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov