25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.10.2022 Forecast on 31.10 - 06.11.2022 Carrington Rotations 2263 (11,4.10.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (1.6 - 2.0) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W =045+13/ -17 (Wn=076+21/-30). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 5 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, 4 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 25 X-RAY FLARES CLASS C, 30- CLASS B, ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 26 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 26.10 1606 1742 0.28 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - S18L268 S35L319 S60L292 S45L245 6.8% 23.10 R4 A SDO, HINOTORI CH - N20L178 N00L183 S10L163 N08L151 3.2 28.10 R3 G1 SDO, HINOTORI CH + N40L193 N30L211 N20L181 N25L178 4/9% 29.10 R3 G1 SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 28.10/1515 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 7.11. ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 OCTOBER Wus 046 072 078 072 087 097 068 F10.7 115 116 122 130 129 134 131 èbcg B3.6 B3.6 B4.3 B4.8 ÷5.5 ÷5.8 ÷5.7 GOES Sp 130 340 430 370 410 460 390 msh N 1 2 2 IMF - - - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.4å+6 2.4E+6 3.7E+6 1.2E+6 1.5E+6 2.5E+6 1.2å+8 GOES Ie>2 103 269 187 125 135 1040 3715 Pfu Ap 8 8 5 9 16 26 12 nô Dst -22 -53 -33 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 6 11 19 20 13 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 30.10/1220 UT AND OBSERVED 30.10. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 31.10-13.11. 28-29.10 THE EARTH ENTERS A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM POTENTIAL- LY GEOEFFICIENT CONSISTENTLY LOCATED CORONAL HOLES AND ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN THE BOULDER, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 30, dur.= 24 h) IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA THESE MAGNåTIC DISTURBATIONS WERE 2 SUBSTORMS DURATION OF 9 h OF INTENSITY G1 AND G0. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov