25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2022 HAS MADE Woct = 57.2 95.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 28 MONTH (2022, APRIL) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*apr.= 44 73.1 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*mar.= 41.3 68.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR OCTOBER 2022 (63 observatories): 1..111 6..162 11..105 16.. 75 21.. 59 26.. 82 31.. 63 2..131 7..163 12..103 17.. 72 22.. 69 27.. 86 3..165M 8..154 13.. 86 18.. 51 23.. 51 28.. 89 4..165M 9..128 14.. 83 19.. 49 24.. 53 29.. 87 5..161 10..121 15.. 44 20.. 35m 25.. 77 30.. 77 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON OCTOBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, APRIL F10.7oct. = 132.8 F*10.7apr.= 116 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON OCTOBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, APRIL Ap oct. = 11.4 Ap*apr. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.10 - 05.11.2022 Forecast on 06 - 13.11.2022 Carrington Rotations 2263 (11,4.10.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (2.1 - 2.5) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY AGAIN REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 040+9/-10 (Wn =066+16/-17) ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, 7 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 18 X-RAY FLARES CLASS C, 39- CLASS B, TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 29 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 03.11 <2226 NE >5 CME/2226 04.11 <0230 SE >5 CME/O230 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N15L046 S05L066 S18L059 N05L041 4.0% 3-4.11 R2 G0 SDO, HINOTORI óî - N22L021 N08L031 S20L026 N10L016 3.3% 10.11 R3 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 28.10/1515 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 7.11. ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 îïñâòø Wus 056 063 049 065 081 082 F10.7 128 128 130 125 118 131 èbcg B5.4 B4.6 B4.5 B4.8 ÷5.6 ÷5.1 GOES Sp 390 360 280 340 510 480 msh N 1 2 1 2 IMF + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+8 6.4E+7 1.1E+8 4.9E+7 2.1E+8 3.7E+8 GOES Ie>2 4923 1783 6466 2584 5870 8029 Pfu Ap 11 8 14 26 16 9 nô Dst -34 -55 -48 -39 nô KIOTO Amsc 10 9 15 30 19 8 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 30.10/1220 UT AND OBSERVED 30.10-05.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 06-13.11. 3.11 THE EARTH ENTERED A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUA- TORIAL CORONAL HOLES AND ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN THE BO- ULDER, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms=33, dur.= 24 h) IS REGISTERED. AC- CORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms=45, dur.= 15 Þ). ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. 10.11 THE EARTH WILL ENTER HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAG- NETIC STORM IS NOT LESS THAN 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov