25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 13.11.2022 Forecast on 14 - 21.11.2022 Carrington Rotations 2263, 2264 (11,4.10; 07,07.11.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (2.6 - 2.9) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 045+6/-11 (Wn=075+10/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS (0NE LARGE) AND, SIX LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 X-RAY FLA RES CLASS M, 60 - CLASS C, 27 -CLASS B, ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 18 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 06.11 2359 0011 0016 N15E69L321 M5.2 5.3E-03 II/2|927 CME 11.11 0700 0714 0720 N14W03L321 M1.2/1f 6.4E-03 13141 IV/1 11.11 1127 1140 1146 N12W11L321 M1.2/Sn 5.4E-03 13141 IV/1 12.11 0009 0024 0018 N14W20ä321 M1.1/SF 5.3E-03 13141 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 07.11 0830 W-limb ~5 CME/0912 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N22L021 N08L031 S20L026 N10L016 3.3% 10.11 R3 A SDO, HINOTORI óî - S25L318 S35L341 S50L333 S40L314 2.7% 19-20.11 R5 G1 SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 10.111/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 25.11. ---------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 NOVEMBER Wus 078 080 085 081 074 057 065 074 F10.7 131 136 132 138 139 138 138 137 èbcg B5.7 B6.4 B4.3 B4.3 B5.0 B5.6 ÷5.3 B6.9 GOES Sp 690 860 730 685 750 750 750 540 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+8 6.4E+7 5.5E+6 1.6E+7 5.0E+7 2.0E+7 1.9E+6 3.4E+6 GOES Ie>2 8981 3338 361 484 1334 1135 137 392 Pfu Ap 4 19 12 7 2 9 5 7 nô Dst -14 -89 -56 -40 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 23 7 4 2 7 4 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 30.10/1220 UT AND OBSERVED 30.10 - 7.11. NEXT SIMILAR FLUX BEGUN AT 10/ 1915 UT AND OBSERVED 10-11.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. 7.11 TO EARTH COMES THE DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 4.11 AND ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms= 34, dur.= 12 h) IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA IT WAS SUBSTORM G1, 15 h DURATION. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. 19 - 20.11 THE EARTH MUST PASS HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE RECURRENT (4 ROTATIONS) CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHE- RE. PROBABILITY OF A SMALL MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 20%. V.N. Ishkov