25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.11.2022 Forecast on 28.11 - 04.12.2022 Carrington Rotations 2264 (07,07.11.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (3.5 - 3.9) deg. (S27 - N333 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=038+12/-5 (Wn= 063+20/-8). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 5 SMALL SUN- SPOT GROUPS AND, 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 27 X-RAY FLARES CLASS C, 27-CLASS B, THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 38 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 23.11 ~1500 NW >5 CME/ 24.11 ~0830 >5 CME/ 24.11 >1300 S35E04L142 ~10 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N50L318 N25L119 S20L097 N18L122 3.5% 28.11 R3 G1 SDO, HINOTORI óî + N20L090 N00L100 S20L139 N10L080 4.5% 01.12 R3 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 23.11/2150 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 8.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 NOVEMBER Wus 080 061 068 061 055 060 056 F10.7 117 116 113 110 100 107 107 èbcg ÷4.8 ÷5.2 ÷2.6 ÷3.7 B3.0 B3.0 ÷3.3 GOES Sp 410 410 440 210 350 440 150 msh N 1 1 IMF - - -/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+6 1.5E+6 1.6E+6 1.3E+6 1.2E+6 4.7E+6 4.3E+7 GOES Ie>2 164 304 150 138 133 309 2404 Pfu Ap 10 3 3 6 20 16 15 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 4 3 6 15 14 15 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 27.11/1345 UT AND OBSERVED 27.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 28.11 - 5.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY ON 27.11, WHEN ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOTH CENTERS, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM G1 BEGAN, WHICH CONTINUES FOR THE TIME OF WRITING THE REVIEW - THE EARTH ENTERED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO AC- TIVE. HOWEVER, FROM 1.12 THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF ANOTHER TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 1 - 2.12 (BASED ON THE CORONAL HOLE CHARACTERISTICS) IS NOT LESS THAN 30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov