25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2022 HAS MADE Wnov. = 46.6 77.6(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 29 MONTH (2022, MAY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÍÁy = 46.4 77.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*apr.= 44 73.1 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR NOVEMBER 2022 (62 observatories): 1.. 82 6.. 89 11.. 72 16.. 87 21.. 77 26.. 74 2.. 97 7.. 96 12.. 84 17.. 58 22.. 69 27.. 69 3.. 76 8.. 98 13..108 18.. 54 23.. 67 28.. 52 4.. 98 9.. 94 14.. 92 19.. 73 24.. 74 29.. 29m 5..110í 10.. 86 15.. 82 20.. 84 25.. 68 30.. 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, MAY F10.7nov. = 123.6 F*10.7may.= 119.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MAY Ap nov. = 9.6 Ap*may. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.11 - 04.12.2022 Forecast on 05 - 12.12.2022 Carrington Rotations 2264, 2265 (7,07.11; 5,05.12.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (4.0 - 4.3) deg. (S27 - N33 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=038+12/-5 (Wn = 063+20/-8). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE LARGE AND, 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=80+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 3 X-RAY FLARES CLASS M, 50-CLASS C, 26 CLASS B, ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 30 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE- TYPE II, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 30.11 0001 0116 0117 S18W79L151 3f 01.12 0704 0721 0736 N28W34L009 M1.0/1n 1.1E-02 13152 CME/0800 03.12 1736 1741 1745 N18E83L290 M1.2/Sn 2.5E-03 13157 II CME/1812 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 02.12 1127 1249 N31W35L 11 13152 óíå/1224/822ËÍ\Ó ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N50L318 N25L119 S20L097 N18L122 3.5% 28.11 R3 G1 SDO, HINOTORI óî + N20L090 N00L100 S20L139 N10L080 4.5% 01.12 R3 A SDO, HINOTORI óî - N35L000 N00L025 S25L027 N25L355 7.7% 07.12 R1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 23.11/2150 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 8.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 DECEMBER Wus 052 025 012 049 066 068 093 F10.7 107 108 111 119 124 134 144 èbcg ÷3.8 ÷5.5 ÷7.4 ÷5.1 B4.9 B6.8 ÷6.6 GOES Sp 170 100 10 330 1010 1170 1620 msh N 3 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.9å+6 5.4E+7 1.9E+8 1.1E+8 3.9E+8 5.7E+8 3.0E+8 GOES Ie>2 264 1702 9440 3325 8776 17352 9706 Pfu Ap 24 25 24 28 16 10 17 nô Dst -10 -35 -34 -39 -31 -25 -41 nô KIOTO Amsc 20 21 24 28 14 10 21 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 29.11/1425 UT AND OBSERVED 29.11-4.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 5 - 12.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS MOSTLY DISTURBED UNTIL 2.12. THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amsc= 25, dur.=12 h) ACCORDING TO BOULDERE CENTER DATA STARTED AT THE END OF 27.11, WHEN THE EARTH PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF THE NORTHERN HEMI- SPHERE. AFTER 12 HOURS THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE AGAIN REACHED THE LEVEL OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amsc=26, dur.=12 h) AND AFTER 24 HOURS THE NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amsc=25, dur.= 27 h) WAS MAR- KED. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS DISTRI- BUTE AS FOLLOWS: 1st -(G1, Amsc=25, dur.=12 h), 2nd -(G1, Amsc=26, dur. =12 h), THEN AFTER 12 h - SUBSTORM (G1 dur 6 h) AND 1.12 AT THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amsc=26, dur.=12h) MARKED AGAIN. THIS RECURRENT LONG-TERM GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN REPEATED AL- READY 6 SOLAR ROTATIONS. IN ADDITION, IN THE SECOND HALF OF 4.12 A DIS- TURBANCE FROM THE M1.0 FLARE ON 01.12 COME TO THE EARTH AND ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amsc=38, dur.=12 h) WAS OB- SERVED, BUT ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IT WAS 9 h SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY G0 ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO UN- SETTLED. HOWEVER, FROM 7.12 THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF ANOTHER TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY, WHICH BORN BY CURRENT SOLAR ROTATION. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 7 - 8.12 (BASED ON THE CORONAL HOLE CHARACTERISTICS) IS NOT LESS THAN 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov