25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.12.2022 Forecast on 12 - 19.12.2022 Carrington Rotations 2264, 2265 (7,07.11; 5,05.12.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (4.4 - 5.0) deg. (S27 - N33 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=060+25/-7 (Wn=100+41/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 IN WHICH WAS LARGE, AND 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 55 X-RAY FLARES OF CLASS ó, 29 - CLASS B, TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 26 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 09.12 0620 0823 S29E27L265 18 óíå 11.12 1200 S45E15L280 15 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N35L000 N00L025 S25L027 N25L355 7.7% 07.12 R1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 07.12/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 20.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 DECEMBER Wus 089 123 107 115 116 111 141 F10.7 150 144 148 143 149 142 148 èbcg ÷7.0 ÷5.1 ÷5.9 ÷4.7 B7.1 B9.1 ÷6.5 GOES Sp 1160 1060 770 1140 1200 1290 1340 msh N 2 1 1 1 3 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 9.6å+7 8.8E+7 5.6E+7 1.3E+6 1.6E+6 1.8å+6 2.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 2607 2554 2496 139 139 163 168 Pfu Ap 8 4 18 11 11 8 10 nô Dst -30 -19 -65 -28 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 5 17 9 10 8 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 29.11/1425 UT AND OBSERVED 29.11-7.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE. 7 and 8.12 MARKED 6-hour SUBSTORMS OF INTENSITY G1 AND G0 AS A RESPONSE OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE TO THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM BY THE EARTH FROM A TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov