25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.12.2022 Forecast on 19 - 26.12.2022 Carrington Rotations 2265 (5,05.12.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (5.1 - 6.0) deg. (S27 - N33 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=071+33/-6 (Wn=119 +55/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE AND TWO -MIDDLE SIZE, 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MODERATE AND LOW LEVELS. 35 FLARES OF X-RAY CLASS M, 86- CLASS C, AND 46 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BE- EN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.12 0730 0740 0747 S21W39L278 M2.4 1.7E-02 13165 14.12 0824 0831 0837 S16W89L329 M1.1/1F 7.6E-03 13153 CME/0848 14.12 0920 0927 0935 S21W40L278 1F/M1.3 8.7E-03 13165 II/2 CME/0948 14.12 1024 1034 1040 S20W41L278 C5.2 4.3E-03 13165 14.12 1145 1159 1217 S21W42L278 M1.1 1.5E-02 13165 14.12 1224 1231 1238 S20W42L278 M4.1 2.0E-02 13165 14.12 1243 1247 1257 S21W41L278 M1.4 13165 14.12 1431 1442 1449 S20W44L278 M6.3/2B 3.1E-02 13165 14.12 1454 1459 1504 S20W43L278 M3.2 1.8E-02 13165 14.12 1703 1712 1723 S20W46L278 M2.2 1.6E-02 13165 14.12 2031 2050 2052 S21W46L278 M1.3 13165 II/1 IV/2 14.12 2052 2058 2102 S22W45L278 M2.2 13165 14.12 2133 2139 2145 S20W50L278 M1.3 13165 14.12 2145 2153 2157 S20W49L278 M2.0 13165 14.12 2157 2206 2217 S21W48L278 M4.5 13165 15.12 0124 0137 0149 S21W48L278 M1.6/SF 1.6E-02 13165 15.12 0655 0707 0722 S21W51L278 M2.3 2.4E-02 13165 15.12 0754 0758 0802 S20W48L278 M1.0 3.8E-03 13165 15.12 0955 1016 1035 S20W56L278 M1.5 13165 15.12 1023 1030 1037 S21W55L278 M1.6 1.3E-02 13165 15.12 1558 1610 1619 N20E89l278 M1.0 1.1E-02 13169 CME/1612 15.12 1635 1644 1647 S21W59L278 M1.1 6.8E-03 13165 15.12 1647 1656 1720 S21E05L218 M2.1 2.7E-02 13163 15.12 2220 2240 2257 S21W62L278 M5.7 13165 16.12 0130 0201 0230 S21W64L278 M3.5 8.1E-02 13165 16.12 0442 0459 0520 N19E89L120 M1.2 13169 16.12 0536 0548 0602 S21W66L278 M1.3 13165 16.12 0630 0642 0654 S20W65L278 M1.2 13165 16.12 0726 0738 0747 S20W66L278 M1.6 13165 16.12 0855 0905 S20W39L278 M1.5 13165 16.12 0933 0943 S20W39L278 M1.1 13165 16.12 1002 1019 S20W39L278 M4.0 13165 16.12 1424 1440 1504 S20W71L278 M2.4 13165 16.12 1534 1540 1545 S20W70L278 M1.2 13165 17.12 1940 2001 1953 N19E72L120 M1.0/1N 13169 CME/2000 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N28L197 N20L220 N05L213 N20L190 2.9% 20.12 R5 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 07.12/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 20.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DECEMBER Wus 142 159 174 140 108 130 128 F10.7 151 153 165 166 166 155 156 èbcg ÷7.6 ÷8.1 C1.7 C3.0 C3.0 C1.1 Ó1.3 GOES Sp 1410 1260 1240 1160 1020 1290 930 msh N 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.1å+6 8.9E+6 1.1E+7 2.4E+6 1.9E+6 2.1å+6 2.0å+6 GOES Ie>2 250 368 400 177 - 189 138 Pfu Ap 6 4 4 4 4 2 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 4 7 6 4 3 3 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DO NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIB- LE AFTER 24.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION OBSERVED ON QUITE LEVEL. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov