25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.12.2022 Forecast on 26.12 - 01.01.2023 Carrington Rotations 2265 (5,05.12.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (6.1 - 7.0) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=071+33/-6 (Wn=119+55/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE AND 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MODERATE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 91- CLASS C, TW0 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 53 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 20.12 <1355 1406 1414 N20E48L120 M1.1/Sf 8.4E-03 13169 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 19.12 1144 N05W65L102 17 CME/1212 23.12 <1100 S27W45L163 >20 CME/1124 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, AND, POSSIBILITY, MIDD- LE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N28L197 N20L220 N05L213 N20L190 2.9% 22.12 R5 A SDO, HINOTORI óî + N55L116 N45L131 N10L121 N15L101 4.4% 29.12 R1 ííâ SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 07.12/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 20.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 DECEMBER Wus 132 119 103 108 100 085 107 F10.7 152 146 139 131 128 133 ? èbcg C1.3 C1.1 C1.0 B7.6 B7.1 ÷6.6 ÷9.0 GOES Sp 890 910 880 470 650 580 510 msh N 1 1 2 1 IMF - - +/- + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+6 1.4E+6 1.3E+6 1.6E+6 2.0E+6 4.1å+7 8.3å+7 GOES Ie>2 136 150 139 122 155 189 138 Pfu Ap 11 6 9 12 20 23 10 nô Dst -22 -38 -42 -33 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 4 8 15 21 20 8 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 24/12 141 5UT AND OBSERVED 24-25.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIB- LE 26.12-03.01.2023. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED UNTIL THE AFTER HALF OF 22.12, WHEN BOTH CENTERS MARKED 6 h SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY G0 AND 23.12 A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Amsc=22, dur= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Amsc=34, dur=12h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. 24.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC ENVIRONMENT WAS ACTIVE. THE SOU- RCE OF THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS THE JOINT IMPACT OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "+"POLARITY OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE DISTURBATION FROM THE EJECTA OF A LARGE SOLAR FILAMENT 19.12. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET TO UN- SETTLED UNTIL 29.12, WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STRE- AM FROM NEXT "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE PRO- BABILITY OF A MAGNETIC STORM IS NOT LESS THAN 30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov