25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2024 HAS MADE Wdec = 81.8 123.0(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 43 MONTH (JULY 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 82.7 124.3 - in new system W*june = 83.1 125.0 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system ~close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.665. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE III - VI 2024 - Wmax=90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2024 (63 observatories) : 1.. 54m 6..144 11..179 16..131 21..154 26.. 79 31.. 94 2.. 66 7..164 12..179 17..146 22..164 27.. 63 3.. 57 8..162 13..186M 18..129 23..144 28.. 68 4.. 98 9..148 14..157 19..141 24..122 29.. 70 5..117 10..164 15..140 20..132 25.. 92 30.. 70 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JANUARY 2024, AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2023 F10.7jan = 167.0 F*10.7july= 159.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2024, AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2023 2023 Ap jan=5.6 Ap*july = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- REVIEW OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA, AND THEIR IMPACTS ON NEAR-EARTH SPACE on 01 - 31.01.2024 Carrington Rotations 2279-2280 (21.12.2023-18,27.01 2024) Earth out of ecliptic (-3 - -5.9 deg) (S35 - N28 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 35 SUNSPOT GROUPS, INCLUDING ONE BIG AND TWO MEDIUM SIZES AND UP 8 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. 32 FLARE WERE OF X-RAY CLASS M AND 441- CLASS C, 12 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 221 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONT OF THEM WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), 18 - TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 20231231 1844 1912 1940 N04E73L152 M1.0 13536 20231231 2136 2155 2208 N04E73L152 X5.0/3B 13536 RIV/2 CMEII/2200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20240101 0833 0854 0904 N04E70L152 M2.3/1N 2.5E-02 13536 20240101 1154 1225 1235 N04E69L152 M4.7 4.4E-02 13536 20240102 1802 1846 1830 N05E58L152 M1.2 13536 20240104_0108 0122 0116 N02E38L152*M1.1/2N 3.3E-03 13536 20240104_0122 0213 0155 N04E38L152*2N/M3.9 6.9E-02 13536 20240110 1239 1255 1305 S20E88L100 M1.4 1.6E-02 20240110 2318 2328 2335 N22W77L177 M1.9/SF 13538 20240111 1244 1251 1255 N19W88L177 M1.3 5.7E-03 13538 20240111 1749 1752 1759 N09W54L139 M1.5 6.7E-03 13539 20240111 1908 1923 1949 N18W88L177 M1.2 13538 20240112 0255 0258 0302 N18E19L064 M1.0/SN 3.0E-03 13547 20240122 0609 0622 0636 N29E27L287 M1.5/1N 1.8E-03 13559 20240122 1913 19281924 N25E14L287 M1.1 13559 20240122 1928 1932 1936 S16W28L325 M1.2 6.1E-03 13561 20240122 1943 1947 1953 S15W30L325 M2.0/1F 9.8E-03 13561 20240122 2114 2121 2132 S17W29L325 M3.4 13561 20240122 2136 2143 2158 S17W29L325 M1.6 13561 20240122 2219 2222 2226 S17W30L325 M2.1 13561 20240123 0309 0331 0338 N29E18L325 M5.1 4.1E-02 13561 CMEII/0348 20240123*0752 0811 0834 S17W36L139 M2.4/1F 6.0E-03 13559 20240123*0818 0822 0834 S19W37L325 1F/M2.3 6.0E-03 13561 20240123^1240 1303 1258 S17W37L325 M1.0 6.3E-03 13561 20240123^1303 1308 1313 N30E13L139 M1.0 6.3E-03 13559 20240123 1445 1459 1505 S18W41l325 M1.3 1.3E-02 13561 20240123 1636 1640 1647 S17W39L325 M4.3 1.9E-02 13561 CMEII/1736? 20240123*1819 1846 1828 S17W43L325 M1.0 13561 20240123*1835 1844 1849 S16W43L325 M1.1 8.9E-03 13561 20240123 1957 2001 2005 S17W42L325 M1.0 13561 20240124 0021 0038 0043 S17W43L325 M1.0 1.1E-02 13561 20240124 0131 0140 0153 S20W48L325 M2.6/SF 2.5E-02 13561 20240124 0518 0543 0600 S16W51L325 M1.4 1.7E-03 13561 20240124 2044 2058 2111 S17W58L325 M1.3 13561 20240129 0129 0140 0158 N30W62L139 M1.3/SF 1.1E-02 13559 20240129 0354 0438 0456 N28W86L139 M6.8/SF 1.8E-01 13559 II/2|512 IV/0424 CME * two X-ray burst in one optical flare ^ Sympathetic flares DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 20240104 0230 NW quadrant 20240109 >1400 >SE-limb >10 CME 20240109 >1400 S S21E17 40-50 13541 CME 20240110 0420 -0520 EPL 0.13 C7.0 13538 20240110 2028 E-limb b/s >10 CME? 20240111 NE-quadrant >10 CME 20240118 1200 N45E70L ~10 CME 20240120 0848 S15E22L >15 C3.5 13555 CMEIV/0912 20240121 0000 N23E40 CME /0024 20240121 0752 0758 EPL 0.18/B.9A CME? 20240121 1433 S32E58 CME /1600 20240122 0900 S35W09 25 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecrafts CH - N10L245 S30L278 S33L263 S10L240 4.8% 01.01 6 ííâ SDO, HINOTORI CH*- N50L224 N45L225 N35L262 N40L269 2.1% 02.01 1 - SDO, HINOTORI CH*- N70L237 N60L217 N28L247 N35L202 3.2% 28.01 2 - SDO, HINOTORI CH - S10L237 S33L257 S35L257 S10L227 2.8% 31.01 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- IN JANUARY THE EARTH PASSED NTXT THE SECTOR BOUNDARIES OF THE INTER- PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS: 20240107 +/- 1753 UT; 20240115 -/+ 0945; 20240123 +/- 1940; - - - - - - - - - - - - Pr>10 MeV: 31.12/1500 UT; max1- 2.12 pfu 1.01/0030; max2- 4.64 pfu 2.01/0000; max3- 8.23 pfu 3.01/0700; max4- 9.31 pfu 3.01/1100; max5-12.3 3.01/2150; max6-20.1 pfu 4.01/0835; max7-25 pfu 5.01/0035; tÅ-09/18 Pr>10 MeV: 21.01/2100 UT; max - 6.90 pfu 22.01/1400; tÅ-24/20 Pr>10 MeV: 29.01/0300 UT; max -136 pfu 29.01/1800; te> 4.02 A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV NO OBSERVED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov